Latin America is facing a critical moment for its agricultural competitiveness and food security. The response cannot be based on restrictions or technological reduction, but rather on greater efficiency, innovation, and cooperation. Keeping trade flows open, accelerating the adoption of digital tools, strengthening farmers’ access to production technologies, and promoting science-based policies will be decisive factors in sustaining productivity, protecting access to food, and strengthening regional resilience in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.

May 2026

*CropLife Latin America.  All rights reserved. Total or partial reproduction of this document is authorized provided that the original source is cited.

 

The global agricultural landscape is entering a phase of structural instability driven by the convergence of armed conflicts, trade tensions among major powers, and a persistent energy crisis. The critical risk for the 2027 cycle is not an “absolute shortage” of fertilizers worldwide, but rather irregular availability and declining affordability due to historically high prices. The following section analyzes the global context and outlines a set of public recommendations for the agricultural value chain.

The Energy Factor and Global Conflict

Nitrogen fertilizer production is facing a structural cost crisis. According to the World Bank and Reuters, fertilizer prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, driven mainly by a 60% increase in urea prices. This phenomenon is the result of a “simultaneous shock” in energy and agricultural markets; energy prices are expected to increase by 24% due to disruptions in the Middle East. The International Monetary Fund warns that this scenario not only affects agriculture, but also threatens global macroeconomic stability and overall inflation. ^{[2], [3], [4]}

Logistic Bottlenecks: The Double Pressure

La Supply security is compromised due to the vulnerability of maritime routes. Yara International points out that the blockage or limitation of the Strait of Hormuz would affect one-third (33%) of global urea trade. This is compounded by a “double logistical pressure”: fertilizer costs are rising at the same time as diesel and maritime freight costs, increasing final port prices for importing countries, especially in regions far from production centers. ^{[5], [6], [7]}

Vulnerability and “Input Nationalism”

Dependence on imports is the greatest risk to regional stability. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) highlights that 90% of Latin American agriculture depends on nitrogen (N) supplies. This situation is worsened by a pattern of “input nationalism”:

• China and India: maintain strict export controls to prioritize their domestic markets ^{[6], [8]}
• Russia: despite being one of the world’s leading exporters and supplying 25% of the global fertilizer market, has restricted exports during specific periods
• Europe: implements energy subsidies to protect its industry and farmers  ^{[6], [9]}
• Latin America: is a major food-exporting region, but critically dependent on fertilizer imports. This erodes competitiveness and directly pressures domestic food basket prices  ^{[6], [10].}

In vulnerable regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Haiti, and rural Central America, the World Food Programme (WFP) warns that the affordability crisis prevents physical access to inputs, affecting more than 700 million people already living under food insecurity ^[11]

Impact on Productivity and Consumers

Risk transmission is not linear. Small reductions in input supply generate disproportionate increases in food prices:

• Reduced application rates: Farmers are expected to reduce nitrogen application by between 5% and 20% due to rising costs ^{[12], [13]}
• Yield losses: Lower fertilization may translate into production losses of between 2% and 8% in key crops ^{[12], [14]}
• Consumer prices: Based on the food demand price elasticity estimated by FAO/IFPRI, a moderate decline in crop yields could drive staple food prices up by 10% to 25%, creating a significant risk of food inflation. Global consumers would face increasing difficulty accessing balanced and nutritious diets, with reduced animal protein consumption and greater reliance on carbohydrates, especially among vulnerable populations. ^{[15], [16]}

Crop Impact in Latin America (2026–2027)

The fertilizer crisis could affect the competitiveness of regional exports differently depending on dependence on nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K). Corn and wheat are the most critical crops for food security, with fertilizer reductions potentially reaching 25% in Brazil and Argentina. ^[17] This could result in a 3% to 7% decline in total agricultural production across Latin America.

In this context, farmers will not stop producing, but they will produce differently — with less fertilizer and greater crop selectivity. They may also reduce per-hectare investments, including crop protection products and technological packages.

The impact of this situation will vary according to crop type, nutrient dependency, and the adaptive capacity of each production system.

CropLife Latin America Recommendations

Priority Actions 2026–2027

• Accelerate precision agriculture: Promote incentives for digital technologies, soil diagnostics, monitoring, and variable-rate application. Precision agriculture enables targeted diagnostics that optimize inputs and shield operations from energy volatility ^[26].
• Promote integrated nutrition: Facilitate agile regulatory frameworks for biological solutions complementary to conventional fertilizers. Prioritize the concept of “Producing more with less” through improved nitrogen-use efficiency. ^{[24], [25].}
• Guarantee input availability: Avoid trade restrictions, unnecessary regulatory barriers, and logistical obstacles that limit timely access to fertilizers and agricultural technologies. FAO has reiterated the need to keep trade flows open and avoid export restrictions — critical mistakes observed during previous crises (2008 and 2022) ^{[13], [29], [30].}
• Protect agricultural productivity: Prioritize policies that maintain farmers’ access to crop protection technologies, financing, technical training, and innovation tools that sustain yields and competitiveness.
• Combat illegal markets: Cost crises often increase the use of illegal or low-quality products, negatively affecting productivity, the environment, and human health.

 

Latin America’s agricultural resilience will depend on the ability of governments, producers, and agri-food chains to act in coordination, accelerate innovation, and guarantee access to inputs and technologies that enable more efficient production per hectare. ^{[2], [31], [32], [33], [34]}

 

Referenced Bibliography

^[1] https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176168535.59223772/v1

^[2] https://doi.org/10.1515/gj-2017-0039

^[3] https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4178.45

^[4] https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12497

^[5] https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05483215

^[6] https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-023-02187-5

^[7] https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3289367/v1

^[8] https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01166-w

^[9] https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41504-2

^[10] https://doi.org/10.13140/rg.2.1.1006.7922

^[11] https://doi.org/10.18235/0004590

^[12] https://doi.org/10.5751/es-09983-230134 

^[13] https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00659-9

^[14] https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01154-0

^[15] https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-016-0097-2

^[16] https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157988

^[17] https://doi.org/10.18235/0003794

^[18] https://doi.org/10.1596/43433

^[19] https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor.25(2).2022.97-103

^[20] https://doi.org/10.22231/asyd.v22i2.1680

^[21] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103814

^[22] https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-025-35886-7

^[23] https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2025.1630441

^[24] https://doi.org/10.3390/nitrogen6040111

^[25] https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202510.2490.v1

^[26] https://doi.org/10.1111/1751-7915.13973

^[27] https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms10061220

^[28] https://doi.org/10.9734/jeai/2023/v45i122284

^[29] https://doi.org/10.22395/ojum.v19n40a6

^[30] https://doi.org/10.47172/sfp2020.979-8-9867349-6-5_4

^[31] https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1124640

^[32] https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01125-y

^[33] https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-023-00409-5

^[34] https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0093998 

*How to cite this document:

CropLife Latin America. 2026. Efficiency, Innovation and Trade: Keys to Addressing Geopolitical Instability in Agriculture. Recommendations by CropLife Latin America.

The opinions expressed in this document represent the position of CropLife Latin America ar the time of publication and are subject to change.